The Atlanta Fed's forecast model shows a significant decline in US gross domestic product for the first quarter. However, the model is highly susceptible to fluctuation and is characterized by a number of special effects.
We have also reduced our expectations for US economic growth.
Germany relaxes the debt brake for defense and infrastructure spending. This improves expectations for the entire region. Inflation is falling, but remains above the 2% target in most economies.
Political changes could have an inflationary effect.
A divergent trend can be seen in government bonds: US yields are falling, while they have risen in the European markets. As debt in Germany is set to rise, investors are demanding higher yields.
The celebratory mood on the US stock markets has come to an abrupt end and has given way to uncertainty. European markets are booming.
The US dollar is moving slightly lower again.
The gold price reaches new highs against all currencies. We remain constructive on the yellow metal.

Rarely have expectations on the global financial markets changed as rapidly and radically as in the past two weeks. Against this backdrop, independent asset managers in Switzerland are seeking refuge in gold and hoping for a stable Swiss financial center with the last remaining major bank, UBS.

Independent asset managers in Switzerland can look back on a surprisingly good year on the stock market. They expect Donald Trump's policies to provide a major boost in 2025. However, they also see attractive investment opportunities in Switzerland - with relatively low risk.

The future of an independent asset manager depends not only on smart investment decisions, but also on well thought-out succession planning, writes Markus Angst in a guest article on finews.ch. Those who ignore this issue risk not only their own success, but also the trust of their clients. Read the full article at finews.ch.

President-elect Donald Trump can implement his policies without restriction with the support of both chambers, which can have an inflationary effect in extremis.
"America First" will have a positive impact on US growth. The international effects depend on the specific implementation of the measures, as well as the countermeasures - as the example of China shows.
Western central banks are expected to cut interest rates further by 2025 to support the economy, while the BOJ is likely to move further away from its zero interest rate policy.
Lower financing costs are also welcomed due to the high and rising national debt in some cases.
The bond markets have calmed down following the US presidential election. Investors are keeping a close eye on the development of government debt.
There was profit-taking on the US stock markets following the US election. In Europe, the markets have been under pressure since the end of September. We remain cautiously positive about further developments. Geopolitical risks and customs discussions could weigh on the stock markets.
The US dollar is trending firmer after the election, while the Swiss franc is showing relative strength, especially against the euro.
The long overdue technical correction in gold has taken place. We remain positive in our medium-term assessment.

Independent asset managers looking for a successor have several options available to them today. Many of them find themselves in this situation today. Vivien Jain examines the various scenarios and their advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of which scheme is chosen, the time factor plays a crucial role in the process. Read the full article here [...]

Independent asset managers in Switzerland are in good shape, but they agree that their numbers will decrease significantly over the next few years, as a recent survey shows. They do not yet have much to do with artificial intelligence. However, those who do use it are optimizing their investment strategy and obtaining better research material.

In the new environment shaped by FINIG/FIDLEG, the issue of succession has become crucial for many independent asset managers. In this interview, Carine Frick Delaloye examines the issue from a valuation perspective, with a focus on asset profitability. Read the full interview in German here.Voici l'intégralité de l'interview [...]

The focus of asset managers is shifting. Where the focus used to be on looking after clients, regulatory requirements and administrative duties now dominate. In an interview with finews.ch, Aquila founder Max Cotting says that time for the actual core of the work, namely maintaining client relationships, is dwindling. Read the full interview here.

Central bank decisions have been the focus of investors' attention in recent days. The Fed surprised participants with a bold rate cut of 50 basis points. The far-reaching sweeping move by the PBOC was unexpected. The measures were positively received by the stock markets. The ECB and SNB also eased their monetary policy in line with expectations.
The global economy appears to be cooling down and is now also affecting the service sector to some extent. The figures remain contradictory.
The USA is surprising on the upside and monetary easing continues to allow for a soft landing.
In Europe, economic concerns are weighing heavier.
The global bond markets have calmed down. The Fed's interest rate cut is leading to a normalization of the yield curve.
On the stock markets, the significant swings "downwards" were corrected surprisingly quickly. However, this recovery was not equally strong everywhere.
The US dollar could remain under pressure. In addition to the expectation of further interest rate cuts, rising debt in the US is also weighing on the greenback.
Gold rises to over USD 2,700 per ounce and reaches a new all-time high.

According to Markus Angst, a good third of all independent asset managers still active today will be transferred in the next few years. The issue of transfer has therefore become a priority for them, which, due to its complexity, requires a rational approach as well as a certain sense of foresight. Read the full interview in German here.voici l'intégralité [...]

The digital transformation in wealth management is not just a question of technology. It is a question of "being fit" for the future. In her article for finews.first, Vivien Jain writes that it is a question of balancing tradition and modernity. Read the full article here.