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Aquila Fokus

Aquila Focus 4/24 - Review, outlook and the yellow metal in the spotlight

aquila focus 4/24 - review, outlook and the yellow metal in the spotlight

In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investment & Wealth Management at Aquila AG, takes stock of the last few months and provides an outlook for the end of the year. The equity markets have been strong in recent quarters, while the bond market has also stabilized. The yellow metal once again played a key role: gold has recorded an impressive gain of over 20% since the beginning of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflation and continued central bank purchases.
Looking ahead to the final weeks of the year, gold remains a key component in portfolios. The gold price could continue to benefit from the uncertainties surrounding the global economy and potential interest rate cuts. In particular, the upcoming US presidential elections and possible new monetary policy measures could lead to increased volatility on the markets. Despite these uncertainties, we are optimistic about the year-end spurt, but are proceeding with caution, as geopolitical risks and economic weaknesses could still challenge the markets.

#aquila focus #EAM 1TP5Investments 1TP5Equities #aquila #asset management 1TP5Gold 1TP5Review 1TP5Outlook 1TP5Central banks 1TP5Interest rate policy

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Aquila Viewpoints

Market outlook | 4th quarter 2024

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Central bank decisions have been the focus of investors' attention in recent days. The Fed surprised participants with a bold rate cut of 50 basis points. The far-reaching sweeping move by the PBOC was unexpected. The measures were positively received by the stock markets. The ECB and SNB also eased their monetary policy in line with expectations.
The global economy appears to be cooling down and is now also affecting the service sector to some extent. The figures remain contradictory.
The USA is surprising on the upside and monetary easing continues to allow for a soft landing.
In Europe, economic concerns are weighing heavier.
The global bond markets have calmed down. The Fed's interest rate cut is leading to a normalization of the yield curve.
On the stock markets, the significant swings "downwards" were corrected surprisingly quickly. However, this recovery was not equally strong everywhere.
The US dollar could remain under pressure. In addition to the expectation of further interest rate cuts, rising debt in the US is also weighing on the greenback.
Gold rises to over USD 2,700 per ounce and reaches a new all-time high.

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Technical article

«Der Kaufpreis sollte auf der Rentabilität des Kundenportfolios basieren»

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Ein gutes Drittel aller heute noch aktiven unabhängigen Vermögensverwalter wird laut Markus Angst in den nächsten Jahren übertragen werden. Daher ist das Thema der Übertragung für sie zu einer Priorität geworden, die aufgrund ihrer Komplexität, eine rationale Herangehensweise erfordert, ebenso wie ein gewisses Gespür für Voraussicht. Lesen Sie hier das ganze Interview auf Deutsch.Voici l’intégralité […]

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Aquila Fokus

Aquila Fokus 3/24 - Investors react to AI investments, small caps in the spotlight

aquila fokus 3/24 - investors react to ki investments, small caps in the spotlight

In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investment & Wealth Management at Aquila AG, looks at investor reaction to increased AI investment and the shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks. Despite strong gains in the first half of the year, the market is volatile and investors are critical of Google's increased AI spending. At the same time, US small caps are back in investors' focus.

#aquilafocus #EAM #aquilaag #investments #shares #aquila #google #KI #AI #assetmanagement

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Aquila Viewpoints

Market outlook | 3rd quarter 2024

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Global growth was robust in the first quarter and the European economy is gaining momentum. The recovery is also likely to continue for the rest of the year - supported by the looser monetary policy, among other things.
We expect global economic growth of 3% for 2024.
The fall in inflation since the coronavirus pandemic is generally welcomed, but has not yet reached the target value of 2% in most regions.
Nevertheless, the first central banks are easing their monetary policy framework and providing growth impetus.
Central banks remain data-dependent in their decisions.
Yields on government bonds in the most important markets are moving sideways.
The stock markets in the most important regions are behaving heterogeneously: new highs in the USA, setbacks in Europe. We remain cautiously constructive for the equity markets.
The US dollar has consolidated its gains since the beginning of the year, while the Swiss franc weakened briefly following the SNB's renewed interest rate cut.
The price of gold is currently trading in a range of USD 2,300 to 2,400 per ounce, and we remain positive in our assessment.

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