Global growth was robust in the first quarter and the European economy is gaining momentum. The recovery is also likely to continue for the rest of the year - supported by the looser monetary policy, among other things.
We expect global economic growth of 3% for 2024.
The fall in inflation since the coronavirus pandemic is generally welcomed, but has not yet reached the target value of 2% in most regions.
Nevertheless, the first central banks are easing their monetary policy framework and providing growth impetus.
Central banks remain data-dependent in their decisions.
Yields on government bonds in the most important markets are moving sideways.
The stock markets in the most important regions are behaving heterogeneously: new highs in the USA, setbacks in Europe. We remain cautiously constructive for the equity markets.
The US dollar has consolidated its gains since the beginning of the year, while the Swiss franc weakened briefly following the SNB's renewed interest rate cut.
The price of gold is currently trading in a range of USD 2,300 to 2,400 per ounce, and we remain positive in our assessment.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are once again dueling for the presidency in the US. The robust US economy is experiencing a slight slowdown. Overall, economic output from industry is weak and is being boosted by the service sector. The BOJ raises key interest rates for the first time in 17 years, but otherwise remains supportive. The SNB lowers its key interest rate and leads the way among the larger central banks. The ECB, BOE and Fed wait with interest rate cuts. Yields on government bonds in the most important regions are consolidating at the upper end of the ranges that have existed since the beginning of the year. The stock markets in the most important regions have largely continued to perform very positively since the start of the year. The US dollar is well supported and the Swiss franc came under pressure following the latest inflation figures and the SNB's interest rate cut. Gold reached new highs and we are maintaining our positioning.

Carine Frick-Delaloye,is responsible for the development of the platform and has also been entrusted with the management of the custodian bank. Her most important concerns are more competitive services and more appropriate support for external asset managers.

Some asset managers in Switzerland would have preferred Credit Suisse to continue to exist rather than be integrated into UBS, according to the latest AVI Index. The "anything-goes mentality" currently dominates the stock market. The EAMs see further price potential in both gold and Bitcoin.

The pleasing growth of the global economy in the third quarter - especially in the USA - will be severely dampened in the fourth quarter, which is usually a seasonally strong quarter. The restrictive monetary policy is having an inhibiting effect.
The outlook for the second half of 2024 is brightening and is experiencing positive momentum, not least thanks to an expected looser monetary policy and "presidential cycle".
Some countries are likely to have already slipped into recession. However, this is mild in most of the countries affected.
The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB)
could open the round of interest rate cuts and cushion a possible downturn.
Yields on government bonds in the most important regions virtually collapsed after the Fed meeting. The announcement of three potential interest rate cuts took many by surprise.
The stock markets responded positively to Fed Chairman Powell's comments and falling interest rates and continued their rally.
Gold consolidates after reaching a new all-time high.

In 2023, numerous geopolitical risks came to the fore, supplemented by interest rate hikes by central banks in the fight against inflation. The conflict in Ukraine will soon last two years. In addition, the situation in the Middle East has worsened, particularly between Israel and Hamas. An escalation of the conflict to neighboring Arab countries has been prevented so far. Economic weaknesses are also evident in two of Switzerland's key trading partners: China and Germany. These developments are leading to a lack of important impetus from foreign trade. Geopolitical issues will continue to play an important role in the coming year. However, the past has shown that the impact of such events on the global financial markets is often short-lived.

Fewer sustainability investments, but more investments in pharmaceutical companies and the healthcare sector. Artificial intelligence en masse, but shares instead of gold. These are some of the resolutions of independent asset managers in Switzerland for the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest AVI Index.

The KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich examines economic development in Switzerland as well as worldwide. The leading indicator for the global economic barometer already indicated in the second half of 2022 that economic growth will cool down in the coming months and is likely to bottom out in the first quarter of 2023. This currently indicates a clear recovery in growth. This is also the case in Switzerland, where the leading KOF indicator appears to be stabilizing and has bottomed out.

These are difficult times ahead for independent asset managers in Switzerland. The emergence of the new UBS is tricky, the outlook for the financial markets is gloomy, and global debt could reach unprecedented levels. Still, there is one bright spot for the industry, according to the latest AVI Index.

The economy in the USA is still surprisingly robust. The flip side is that inflationary pressures remain elevated. However, there are increasing signs of a slowdown. Loan arrears and bankruptcies are rising.
In the Eurozone there is a marked loss of momentum. The services sector is now also coming under pressure.
Central banks take such developments into account in setting their mone-tary policies. They have stepped back from a commitment to rapid rate rises and have shifted to “fine-tuning”. This might involve modest rate changes and substantial pauses when it comes to changing rates.
Yields on 10-year US government bonds have risen to 4.5%, reaching a 16-year high. Meanwhile, European and Swiss government bond yields have trended sideways.
Equity markets are unsettled and are currently trading around 5% below their highs for the year (depending on the region).
The US dollar is benefit-ing from the rise in US yields and looks set to make further gains. The Swiss franc is trending weaker.
Gold has lately been rather stable despite rising US real interest rates. Oil prices have risen, reaching a high for the year around $95 a barrel.

Fewer equities, more gold and caution with artificial intelligence. According to independent asset managers in Switzerland, these are the most important trends for the next three months.

Most central banks are still raising interest rates while liquidity and the money supply are being cut back. At times, the stresses caused by monetary policy tightening is forcing some central banks to relax their policies temporarily. But the importance of such short-term countermeas-ures should not be overestimated.
Overall, tighter monetary policies are having an increasing impact on the consumer and the economy.
The fall in inflation rates is taking the pressure off from monetary authori-ties. The peak in the interest rate hike cycle is likely to be reached in the second half of the year.
Yields in the major government bond markets have been rather stable as of late. Volatility has fallen significantly.
Trends in stock markets are increasingly reminiscent of the Tech bubble of 1999/2000. We remain cautious in our positioning and neutrally weighted in the equity quota.
Currency markets have been broadly stable. The Swiss franc continues to be in demand.
Having risen earlier in the year, the gold price is now consolidating.