Donald Trump and Joe Biden are once again dueling for the presidency in the US. The robust US economy is experiencing a slight slowdown. Overall, economic output from industry is weak and is being boosted by the service sector. The BOJ raises key interest rates for the first time in 17 years, but otherwise remains supportive. The SNB lowers its key interest rate and leads the way among the larger central banks. The ECB, BOE and Fed wait with interest rate cuts. Yields on government bonds in the most important regions are consolidating at the upper end of the ranges that have existed since the beginning of the year. The stock markets in the most important regions have largely continued to perform very positively since the start of the year. The US dollar is well supported and the Swiss franc came under pressure following the latest inflation figures and the SNB's interest rate cut. Gold reached new highs and we are maintaining our positioning.

Carine Frick-Delaloye,is responsible for the development of the platform and has also been entrusted with the management of the custodian bank. Her most important concerns are more competitive services and more appropriate support for external asset managers.

Some asset managers in Switzerland would have preferred Credit Suisse to continue to exist rather than be integrated into UBS, according to the latest AVI Index. The "anything-goes mentality" currently dominates the stock market. The EAMs see further price potential in both gold and Bitcoin.

In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investment & Wealth Management, discusses the triple comeback: hopes for interest rate cuts, meme stocks are back and positive news from Roche.

#aquila focus #interest #meme shares #roche #eam #aquilaag

In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Banking & Investments, discusses the continuing rally in US tech stocks and the lack of an interest rate cut in the USA for the time being.

#aquila focus #interest #techrally #eam #aquilaag

The pleasing growth of the global economy in the third quarter - especially in the USA - will be severely dampened in the fourth quarter, which is usually a seasonally strong quarter. The restrictive monetary policy is having an inhibiting effect.
The outlook for the second half of 2024 is brightening and is experiencing positive momentum, not least thanks to an expected looser monetary policy and "presidential cycle".
Some countries are likely to have already slipped into recession. However, this is mild in most of the countries affected.
The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB)
could open the round of interest rate cuts and cushion a possible downturn.
Yields on government bonds in the most important regions virtually collapsed after the Fed meeting. The announcement of three potential interest rate cuts took many by surprise.
The stock markets responded positively to Fed Chairman Powell's comments and falling interest rates and continued their rally.
Gold consolidates after reaching a new all-time high.

In 2023, numerous geopolitical risks came to the fore, supplemented by interest rate hikes by central banks in the fight against inflation. The conflict in Ukraine will soon last two years. In addition, the situation in the Middle East has worsened, particularly between Israel and Hamas. An escalation of the conflict to neighboring Arab countries has been prevented so far. Economic weaknesses are also evident in two of Switzerland's key trading partners: China and Germany. These developments are leading to a lack of important impetus from foreign trade. Geopolitical issues will continue to play an important role in the coming year. However, the past has shown that the impact of such events on the global financial markets is often short-lived.

Fewer sustainability investments, but more investments in pharmaceutical companies and the healthcare sector. Artificial intelligence en masse, but shares instead of gold. These are some of the resolutions of independent asset managers in Switzerland for the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest AVI Index.

In the Christmas edition of Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investments and Banking, ventures an outlook into the new year.

#shares #2024 #aquila focus #eam #aquilaag

The KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich examines economic development in Switzerland as well as worldwide. The leading indicator for the global economic barometer already indicated in the second half of 2022 that economic growth will cool down in the coming months and is likely to bottom out in the first quarter of 2023. This currently indicates a clear recovery in growth. This is also the case in Switzerland, where the leading KOF indicator appears to be stabilizing and has bottomed out.

These are difficult times ahead for independent asset managers in Switzerland. The emergence of the new UBS is tricky, the outlook for the financial markets is gloomy, and global debt could reach unprecedented levels. Still, there is one bright spot for the industry, according to the latest AVI Index.

The economy in the USA is still surprisingly robust. The flip side is that inflationary pressures remain elevated. However, there are increasing signs of a slowdown. Loan arrears and bankruptcies are rising.
In the Eurozone there is a marked loss of momentum. The services sector is now also coming under pressure.
Central banks take such developments into account in setting their mone-tary policies. They have stepped back from a commitment to rapid rate rises and have shifted to “fine-tuning”. This might involve modest rate changes and substantial pauses when it comes to changing rates.
Yields on 10-year US government bonds have risen to 4.5%, reaching a 16-year high. Meanwhile, European and Swiss government bond yields have trended sideways.
Equity markets are unsettled and are currently trading around 5% below their highs for the year (depending on the region).
The US dollar is benefit-ing from the rise in US yields and looks set to make further gains. The Swiss franc is trending weaker.
Gold has lately been rather stable despite rising US real interest rates. Oil prices have risen, reaching a high for the year around $95 a barrel.