Economic lockdowns are being rapidly reduced in the USA due to a significant drop in the number of cases. Europe, with the exception of the UK, has a clear backlog with regard to vaccinations and is again recording rising case numbers, which is why lockdowns tend to be extended or even reintroduced. The fiscal stimulus in the US is much higher than in Europe. More details on our assessments in the new Aquila Viewpoint.

Market outlook Q1 2021: We expect global economic growth of around +4.5% in 2021. The second pandemic wave and the lockdown measures triggered by it will still slow down economic growth in the northern hemisphere in the coming months. More details on our assessments in the new Aquila Viewpoint.

Market outlook Q4 2020: The economic recovery continues at a slower pace due to a renewed rise in the number of cases. The impact of the pandemic forced virtually all central banks in the developed world to bring their policy rates closer to the zero bound and thus to BOJ and ECB policies. More details on our assessments in the new Aquila Viewpoint.

Market outlook for Q3 2020. Despite opening measures regarding lock-downs, a V-shaped economic recovery is unlikely. Equity market performance is at odds with macro indicator performance. More details on our assessments in the new Aquila Viewpoint.

Market outlook for Q2 2020. Due to the outbreak of the COVID 19 coronavirus in all parts of the world and large-scale quarantine measures, we had to revise our growth forecasts sharply downwards. More details on our estimates in the new Aquila Viewpoint.

In the course of next year, we expect growth to stabilize tentatively. The ECB and the FED will maintain their balance sheet expansion programs. The FED is likely to keep further interest rate cuts open as an option next year.

The downturn continues. As expected by consensus, the ECB and the FED further eased their monetary policy in September.

The global economy has lost further momentum. How do you think monetary policy will react?

How is the slight cooling of the global economy affecting monetary policy and the markets?