Vaccination campaigns are being implemented at speed in most Western nations and lockdown measures are being scaled back. There is a risk that the jump in US inflation will not be just temporary. But the US labor market is still too weak for an inflation explosion. The latest US economic figures were disappointing. Central banks, like most other investors, are investing pro-cyclically and have increased their quotas for “investments” in risky instruments. Many central banks intend to hold less US dollars and more “other currencies” in their reserves.

Thanks to the continued positive macro environment and the recovery of corporate earnings, some stock indices reached new highs. Cryptocurrencies were significantly more volatile - after the Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high, it corrected by over 25%.

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Focus Points:
0:00 Intro
0:18 Is "sell in May and go away" the right investment strategy?
1:32 Bitcoin price shows its volatile side

1TP5Financial Markets #SellInMayAndGoAway #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #aquilaFocus

Two-thirds of independent asset managers in Switzerland believe that cryptocurrencies do not belong in a client portfolio. Instead, they focus on equities and were able to significantly increase their assets under management in the first three months of the current year.

The rise in interest rates at the long end of the yield curve has come to a halt for the time being. This probably reflects the view that the Biden Administration’s infrastructure package will be financed primarily through tax increases. If implemented, the Administration’s plans would significantly worsen the international position of the US from a tax competition perspective. The good sentiment indicators in the US are due to booming stock markets. Never before have the real economy and stock markets been as linked as they are today.

Many Swiss investors had reason to be satisfied with the portfolio performance in the first quarter of 2021. In the first three months, "the higher the equity allocation, the better the performance" applied.
Two factors will influence equity markets in the short term and provide deeper insights into our tactical investment policy.

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Focus Points:
0:00 Intro
0:18 Portfolio performance in the 1st quarter
1:55 These two factors will influence the stock markets in the short term

1TP5Performance 1TP5Market Expectations 1TP5Stock Market #aquila #aquila Focus

Economic lockdowns are being rapidly reduced in the USA due to a significant drop in the number of cases. Europe, with the exception of the UK, has a clear backlog with regard to vaccinations and is again recording rising case numbers, which is why lockdowns tend to be extended or even reintroduced. The fiscal stimulus in the US is much higher than in Europe. More details on our assessments in the new Aquila Viewpoint.

Infection figures continue to delay recovery. Long-term government bond yields have risen significantly in recent weeks. Why you shouldn't say goodbye to all technology stocks.

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Focus Points:
0:00 Intro
0:18 COVID update
1:40 Yield increase at the long end of the yield curve
2:33 Why we are holding on to technology stocks

1TP5interest rate rise 1TP5operation twist #ech stocks #aquila #aquila focus

Long-term interest rates have risen sharply in recent weeks. There are 3 reasons for this: 1. due to the strongly rising government deficits, more and more bonds have to be placed with investors 2. the prospect of an end to the quarantine measures and a strong economic upswing reduce the demand for government bonds 3. rising inflation expectations. Due to the enormous debt and highly valued equities and real estate, the rise in interest rates must be slowed down. We expect the FED to take further measures soon.

Large government rescue packages are straining the capacity of bond markets to finance them. Central banks have delivered a gigantic increase in the money supply which has caused a rise in inflation expectations. Nominal interest rates on longer-term bonds have risen more than inflation expectations, leading to higher real interest rates. Given that equity and bond markets are highly valued, investors must monitor developments closely. We expect central banks will soon become even more active in combatting the rise in long-term interest rates.

To the point. With Aquila Focus, we regularly inform you about the latest trends on the financial markets and you get exclusive insight into the investment decisions of our Tactical Investment Committee.

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Focus Points:
0:00 Intro
0:18 Start Financial Markets 2021
2:15 Holding on to gold positions

#goldinvestments #startfinancialmarkets2021 #aquila #aquila focus

To the point. With Aquila Focus, we keep you regularly informed about the latest trends on the financial markets and give you exclusive insight into the investment decisions of our tactical investment committee.

Also follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/aquila-ag/

In 2021 the world will get vaccinated. The second half of the year should see the start of a strong economic recovery. Democrat election victories in Georgia should result in a significantly more stimulative fiscal policy. However, expectations of a $3,000 billion package seem exaggerated due to the minimal Democrat majority in the Senate as well as the presence there of some centrist, traditional Democrats. Sooner or later, the Fed and other central banks will probably have to fight a too-rapid steepening of the yield curve in order to ensure the sustainability of government debt levels.