1st quarter 2020
Independent asset managers in Switzerland unanimously expect the next three months to be difficult. A majority expects a global recession, but also anticipates a stock market boom.
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Independent asset managers in Switzerland unanimously expect the next three months to be difficult. A majority expects a global recession, but also anticipates a stock market boom.
Market outlook for Q2 2020. Due to the outbreak of the COVID 19 coronavirus in all parts of the world and large-scale quarantine measures, we had to revise our growth forecasts sharply downwards. More details on our estimates in the new Aquila Viewpoint.
Update on the coronavirus and the situation in the financial markets. Normalization is already taking place in China, while central banks are reacting in many other regions. Stock markets continue to be extremely volatile. Read more in the latest Aquila Flash.
After the Chinese economy, the corona virus has also reached the global economy. The FED surprisingly lowers the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Read more about the coronavirus and its impact on the economy in the new Aquila Flash.
The Corona virus is having an impact on the Chinese economy. It is impossible to estimate how long the spread could continue. Will the fear of the virus ultimately affect/paralyze the economy more than the viral disease itself?
U.S. equities in particular were highly valued and technically overbought before the "corona virus correction". The persistence of overvaluation makes stocks vulnerable to a correction even if the Corona virus is brought under control. Read more in the latest Aquila Flash.
Independent asset managers expect a gold bull market in 2020. Corresponding expectations for the stock market in 2020 emerge from the latest Aquila Asset Managers Index (AVI).
What about US stocks and bonds, which are more overvalued? The situation in the Middle East threatens to escalate after the US drone attacks. Is there a possible impact on the expected slight upturn in the U.S.?
An orderly Brexit is now expected to take place by the end of January. What does the future hold for the relationship between the UK and the EU? The first phase of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China has been agreed and is ready to be signed. What does this mean for 2020?
In the course of next year, we expect growth to stabilize tentatively. The ECB and the FED will maintain their balance sheet expansion programs. The FED is likely to keep further interest rate cuts open as an option next year.
Global growth slowdown calls central banks to action. President Trump and the Chinese vice premier indicated that trade talks are going well. That and much of the latest in the Aquila Flash "Central Banks."
Independent asset managers expect Donald Trump to be re-elected. Reasons and the resulting expectations for the stock market emerge from the latest Aquila Asset Managers Index (AVI).
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Nicolas Peter
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