The war in Iran is currently dominating global stock markets. According to the latest Aquila Wealth Managers Index, independent asset managers in Switzerland have therefore become significantly more pessimistic for the current year.

Since the end of February, the conflict between the USA, Israel, and Iran has been escalating. Attacks on energy facilities and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are leading to massive oil and gas shortages on the world market.

Last Saturday, the USA and Israel attacked civilian and military targets in Iran. Ayatollah Ali Kamenei, the Iranian revolutionary leader, was killed in the attack. The Iranian government has announced 40 days of national mourning.

According to a survey of independent asset managers in Switzerland, a clear majority are betting on further price increases for Swiss equities, while other markets are seen as weaker. Investments in domestic real estate are also popular, as is gold.

In Switzerland, consumption remains the mainstay of the economy, while foreign trade is slowing growth. Inflation is close to zero.
Germany has probably overcome the recession and moderate growth of 1.3-1.4% is expected for the coming years. The EU-US trade agreement further improves the outlook.
In the USA, the figures are contradictory and a shutdown is looming.
The SNB and ECB are keeping their key interest rates unchanged at 0% and 2.0-2.4% respectively. Forecasts point to a slight rise in inflation.
The Fed is continuing its cycle of interest rate cuts due to weaker labor market data and probably also political pressure. Further interest rate cuts are expected.
The mood on the global bond markets is calm and yields are barely moving.
The most important stock markets remain close to their highs as market breadth declines. Individual technology stocks are coming under pressure.
The decline of the US dollar has been interrupted, but further weakness could follow in the medium term.
Gold reflects the loss of confidence in the US dollar.

Independent asset managers in Switzerland are currently facing a difficult market situation. Many assets are proudly valued after the bull market in the current year, while at the same time the geopolitical fragmentation of the world does not make it easy to make the right investment decisions, as the latest edition of the AVI Index shows. 

Independent asset managers in Switzerland are unanimous: local banks are threatened by overregulation, the US economy is overestimated on the stock market, and now is a good time to dry up profits.

In Switzerland, consumption remains the mainstay of the economy, while foreign trade is slowing growth. Inflation is close to zero.
Germany has probably overcome the recession and moderate growth of 1.3-1.4% is expected for the coming years. The EU-US trade agreement further improves the outlook.
In the USA, the figures are contradictory and a shutdown is looming.
The SNB and ECB are keeping their key interest rates unchanged at 0% and 2.0-2.4% respectively. Forecasts point to a slight rise in inflation.
The Fed is continuing its cycle of interest rate cuts due to weaker labor market data and probably also political pressure. Further interest rate cuts are expected.
The mood on the global bond markets is calm and yields are barely moving.
The most important stock markets remain close to their highs as market breadth declines. Individual technology stocks are coming under pressure.
The decline of the US dollar has been interrupted, but further weakness could follow in the medium term.
Gold reflects the loss of confidence in the US dollar.

US GDP contracted slightly in 1Q25, but a strong recovery is expected for 2Q25. The high fluctuations in net exports are responsible for this.
The SNB is lowering its GDP forecast for '25 and '26 slightly to 1-1.5%, but expects unemployment to rise only slightly.
Escalating geopolitical risks and the USA's aggressive customs policy are putting pressure on global growth and could fuel inflation.
The central banks deliver in line with expectations. The Fed warns of weaker growth and rising inflation. The ECB believes the inflation target has been reached and the SNB shows
are reluctant to accept negative interest rates.
The Israeli attacks on Iran have led to the familiar pattern of "flight to safety" on the bond markets.
Following the significant recovery, things could now become somewhat more difficult on the stock markets.
The depreciation of the USD is picking up speed again due to the continued withdrawal of capital from the USA.
The scenario for gold is almost perfect. We remain constructive on the yellow metal.

The Atlanta Fed's forecast model shows a significant decline in US gross domestic product for the first quarter. However, the model is highly susceptible to fluctuation and is characterized by a number of special effects.
We have also reduced our expectations for US economic growth.
Germany relaxes the debt brake for defense and infrastructure spending. This improves expectations for the entire region. Inflation is falling, but remains above the 2% target in most economies.
Political changes could have an inflationary effect.
A divergent trend can be seen in government bonds: US yields are falling, while they have risen in the European markets. As debt in Germany is set to rise, investors are demanding higher yields.
The celebratory mood on the US stock markets has come to an abrupt end and has given way to uncertainty. European markets are booming.
The US dollar is moving slightly lower again.
The gold price reaches new highs against all currencies. We remain constructive on the yellow metal.

Rarely have expectations on the global financial markets changed as rapidly and radically as in the past two weeks. Against this backdrop, independent asset managers in Switzerland are seeking refuge in gold and hoping for a stable Swiss financial center with the last remaining major bank, UBS.

Independent asset managers in Switzerland can look back on a surprisingly good year on the stock market. They expect Donald Trump's policies to provide a major boost in 2025. However, they also see attractive investment opportunities in Switzerland - with relatively low risk.