Q1 2026

Asset managers are becoming significantly more pessimistic

The war in Iran is currently dominating global stock markets. According to the latest Aquila Wealth Managers Index, independent asset managers in Switzerland have therefore become significantly more pessimistic for the current year. 

The majority of asset managers surveyed do not expect a quick resolution to the war in the Middle East. 65 percent expect a «frozen conflict» scenario, meaning prolonged instability without a clear winner. One in five respondents expects a diplomatic solution through a ceasefire and negotiations. The proportion is even smaller for those asked about a regime change (7 percent). 

With a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, just under a quarter of asset managers expect a severe stagflationary crisis, 39 percent anticipate a mild recession, and another 35 percent expect slower growth without a recession. 

According to the current survey Since the beginning of the Iran war on February 28, portfolios have been adjusted very differently by Aquila and finews.ch. A good 50 percent of participants made no changes, a little more than every fourth asset manager increased their cash ratio, and 18 percent reported a lower equity ratio. It was clear that multiple adjustments were possible here.

A few more bonds

When asked about the current asset allocation of a balanced mandate, a clear shift is evident: compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, the equity quota slightly decreased from 50 to 46 percent, while the bond share increased from 23.3 to 25.9 percent. However, it is still significantly below the benchmark of 45 percent. The cash share increased slightly to 10.7 percent, while there were practically no differences in gold/precious metals and alternative investments among the respondents on average compared to the previous survey. 

Interesting are the answers to the question about further portfolio adjustments in the next four weeks. According to this, 53 percent of asset managers plan to buy «selectively opportunistically,» while another 40 percent want to wait and see. Further risk reduction is apparently not an issue at the moment, specifically 0.0 percent of the answers...

Deeper SMI and higher interest rates

At the same time, expectations regarding performance are significantly lower. In the fourth quarter of 2025, a high 64 percent expected the SMI to rise in the next 12 months. In the latest survey, only 17 percent are this «positive.» The majority (55 percent) hope for a stable SMI, which is practically double the number from the previous survey. The percentage of «pessimists» rose from 8 to 28 percent. They expect the index level to be lower in a year than it is currently.

The shifts in interest rate expectations are even greater. In the 2025 surveys, there were always around 8 percent who expected higher yields on 10-year government bonds within 12 months. Now, at 49 percent, it's practically half of all respondents. At the same time, only 28 percent currently expect constant yields, whereas previously it was almost two-thirds. At least just under a quarter are betting on higher yields, compared to 42 percent who believed this a year ago.

Among other things, the survey also examines how risks are assessed. When asked, «In your view, what is the most underestimated risk?» the response was clear. Nearly 40 percent fear the destabilization of Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Twenty-two percent view a potential collapse in Iran as an «underestimated» risk, and another 16 percent are concerned about potential shortages of weapons because the Americans could deploy them in Iran and thus no longer be able to supply Ukraine. Even more direct would be the consequences of cyberattacks on Western (financial) infrastructure; according to the survey, 10 percent view this as the most underestimated risk.

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The next AVI index will be released in June 2026.

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