Independent asset managers in Switzerland are currently facing a difficult market situation. Many assets are proudly valued after the bull market in the current year, while at the same time the geopolitical fragmentation of the world does not make it easy to make the right investment decisions, as the latest edition of the AVI Index shows. 

Independent asset managers in Switzerland are unanimous: local banks are threatened by overregulation, the US economy is overestimated on the stock market, and now is a good time to dry up profits.

In Switzerland, consumption remains the mainstay of the economy, while foreign trade is slowing growth. Inflation is close to zero.
Germany has probably overcome the recession and moderate growth of 1.3-1.4% is expected for the coming years. The EU-US trade agreement further improves the outlook.
In the USA, the figures are contradictory and a shutdown is looming.
The SNB and ECB are keeping their key interest rates unchanged at 0% and 2.0-2.4% respectively. Forecasts point to a slight rise in inflation.
The Fed is continuing its cycle of interest rate cuts due to weaker labor market data and probably also political pressure. Further interest rate cuts are expected.
The mood on the global bond markets is calm and yields are barely moving.
The most important stock markets remain close to their highs as market breadth declines. Individual technology stocks are coming under pressure.
The decline of the US dollar has been interrupted, but further weakness could follow in the medium term.
Gold reflects the loss of confidence in the US dollar.

US GDP contracted slightly in 1Q25, but a strong recovery is expected for 2Q25. The high fluctuations in net exports are responsible for this.
The SNB is lowering its GDP forecast for '25 and '26 slightly to 1-1.5%, but expects unemployment to rise only slightly.
Escalating geopolitical risks and the USA's aggressive customs policy are putting pressure on global growth and could fuel inflation.
The central banks deliver in line with expectations. The Fed warns of weaker growth and rising inflation. The ECB believes the inflation target has been reached and the SNB shows
are reluctant to accept negative interest rates.
The Israeli attacks on Iran have led to the familiar pattern of "flight to safety" on the bond markets.
Following the significant recovery, things could now become somewhat more difficult on the stock markets.
The depreciation of the USD is picking up speed again due to the continued withdrawal of capital from the USA.
The scenario for gold is almost perfect. We remain constructive on the yellow metal.

The Atlanta Fed's forecast model shows a significant decline in US gross domestic product for the first quarter. However, the model is highly susceptible to fluctuation and is characterized by a number of special effects.
We have also reduced our expectations for US economic growth.
Germany relaxes the debt brake for defense and infrastructure spending. This improves expectations for the entire region. Inflation is falling, but remains above the 2% target in most economies.
Political changes could have an inflationary effect.
A divergent trend can be seen in government bonds: US yields are falling, while they have risen in the European markets. As debt in Germany is set to rise, investors are demanding higher yields.
The celebratory mood on the US stock markets has come to an abrupt end and has given way to uncertainty. European markets are booming.
The US dollar is moving slightly lower again.
The gold price reaches new highs against all currencies. We remain constructive on the yellow metal.

Rarely have expectations on the global financial markets changed as rapidly and radically as in the past two weeks. Against this backdrop, independent asset managers in Switzerland are seeking refuge in gold and hoping for a stable Swiss financial center with the last remaining major bank, UBS.

Independent asset managers in Switzerland can look back on a surprisingly good year on the stock market. They expect Donald Trump's policies to provide a major boost in 2025. However, they also see attractive investment opportunities in Switzerland - with relatively low risk.

The future of an independent asset manager depends not only on smart investment decisions, but also on well thought-out succession planning, writes Markus Angst in a guest article on finews.ch. Those who ignore this issue risk not only their own success, but also the trust of their clients. Read the full article at finews.ch.

Nicolas Peter looks back on a pleasing year: investors achieved impressive returns despite the weaker performance of the Swiss stock market. The US market in particular shone with a performance of 28%.
We remain optimistic for equities in 2025 - albeit with more volatility. The US market impresses with strong earnings growth, while the Swiss market scores with solid dividends. Gold remains an important portfolio component, supported by central bank purchases, falling interest rates and rising debt.
The Aquila Investments team is looking forward to an exciting new year!

#AquilaFocus #Aquila #Investments #Gold #ZPolicy #SMI #USMarket #Anvestment strategy #2025

President-elect Donald Trump can implement his policies without restriction with the support of both chambers, which can have an inflationary effect in extremis.
"America First" will have a positive impact on US growth. The international effects depend on the specific implementation of the measures, as well as the countermeasures - as the example of China shows.
Western central banks are expected to cut interest rates further by 2025 to support the economy, while the BOJ is likely to move further away from its zero interest rate policy.
Lower financing costs are also welcomed due to the high and rising national debt in some cases.
The bond markets have calmed down following the US presidential election. Investors are keeping a close eye on the development of government debt.
There was profit-taking on the US stock markets following the US election. In Europe, the markets have been under pressure since the end of September. We remain cautiously positive about further developments. Geopolitical risks and customs discussions could weigh on the stock markets.
The US dollar is trending firmer after the election, while the Swiss franc is showing relative strength, especially against the euro.
The long overdue technical correction in gold has taken place. We remain positive in our medium-term assessment.

Independent asset managers looking for a successor have several options available to them today. Many of them find themselves in this situation today. Vivien Jain examines the various scenarios and their advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of which scheme is chosen, the time factor plays a crucial role in the process. Read the full article here [...]

Independent asset managers in Switzerland are in good shape, but they agree that their numbers will decrease significantly over the next few years, as a recent survey shows. They do not yet have much to do with artificial intelligence. However, those who do use it are optimizing their investment strategy and obtaining better research material.