In Switzerland, consumption remains the mainstay of the economy, while foreign trade is slowing growth. Inflation is close to zero.
Germany has probably overcome the recession and moderate growth of 1.3-1.4% is expected for the coming years. The EU-US trade agreement further improves the outlook.
In the USA, the figures are contradictory and a shutdown is looming.
The SNB and ECB are keeping their key interest rates unchanged at 0% and 2.0-2.4% respectively. Forecasts point to a slight rise in inflation.
The Fed is continuing its cycle of interest rate cuts due to weaker labor market data and probably also political pressure. Further interest rate cuts are expected.
The mood on the global bond markets is calm and yields are barely moving.
The most important stock markets remain close to their highs as market breadth declines. Individual technology stocks are coming under pressure.
The decline of the US dollar has been interrupted, but further weakness could follow in the medium term.
Gold reflects the loss of confidence in the US dollar.

US GDP contracted slightly in 1Q25, but a strong recovery is expected for 2Q25. The high fluctuations in net exports are responsible for this.
The SNB is lowering its GDP forecast for '25 and '26 slightly to 1-1.5%, but expects unemployment to rise only slightly.
Escalating geopolitical risks and the USA's aggressive customs policy are putting pressure on global growth and could fuel inflation.
The central banks deliver in line with expectations. The Fed warns of weaker growth and rising inflation. The ECB believes the inflation target has been reached and the SNB shows
are reluctant to accept negative interest rates.
The Israeli attacks on Iran have led to the familiar pattern of "flight to safety" on the bond markets.
Following the significant recovery, things could now become somewhat more difficult on the stock markets.
The depreciation of the USD is picking up speed again due to the continued withdrawal of capital from the USA.
The scenario for gold is almost perfect. We remain constructive on the yellow metal.

The Atlanta Fed's forecast model shows a significant decline in US gross domestic product for the first quarter. However, the model is highly susceptible to fluctuation and is characterized by a number of special effects.
We have also reduced our expectations for US economic growth.
Germany relaxes the debt brake for defense and infrastructure spending. This improves expectations for the entire region. Inflation is falling, but remains above the 2% target in most economies.
Political changes could have an inflationary effect.
A divergent trend can be seen in government bonds: US yields are falling, while they have risen in the European markets. As debt in Germany is set to rise, investors are demanding higher yields.
The celebratory mood on the US stock markets has come to an abrupt end and has given way to uncertainty. European markets are booming.
The US dollar is moving slightly lower again.
The gold price reaches new highs against all currencies. We remain constructive on the yellow metal.

President-elect Donald Trump can implement his policies without restriction with the support of both chambers, which can have an inflationary effect in extremis.
"America First" will have a positive impact on US growth. The international effects depend on the specific implementation of the measures, as well as the countermeasures - as the example of China shows.
Western central banks are expected to cut interest rates further by 2025 to support the economy, while the BOJ is likely to move further away from its zero interest rate policy.
Lower financing costs are also welcomed due to the high and rising national debt in some cases.
The bond markets have calmed down following the US presidential election. Investors are keeping a close eye on the development of government debt.
There was profit-taking on the US stock markets following the US election. In Europe, the markets have been under pressure since the end of September. We remain cautiously positive about further developments. Geopolitical risks and customs discussions could weigh on the stock markets.
The US dollar is trending firmer after the election, while the Swiss franc is showing relative strength, especially against the euro.
The long overdue technical correction in gold has taken place. We remain positive in our medium-term assessment.

Central bank decisions have been the focus of investors' attention in recent days. The Fed surprised participants with a bold rate cut of 50 basis points. The far-reaching sweeping move by the PBOC was unexpected. The measures were positively received by the stock markets. The ECB and SNB also eased their monetary policy in line with expectations.
The global economy appears to be cooling down and is now also affecting the service sector to some extent. The figures remain contradictory.
The USA is surprising on the upside and monetary easing continues to allow for a soft landing.
In Europe, economic concerns are weighing heavier.
The global bond markets have calmed down. The Fed's interest rate cut is leading to a normalization of the yield curve.
On the stock markets, the significant swings "downwards" were corrected surprisingly quickly. However, this recovery was not equally strong everywhere.
The US dollar could remain under pressure. In addition to the expectation of further interest rate cuts, rising debt in the US is also weighing on the greenback.
Gold rises to over USD 2,700 per ounce and reaches a new all-time high.

Global growth was robust in the first quarter and the European economy is gaining momentum. The recovery is also likely to continue for the rest of the year - supported by the looser monetary policy, among other things.
We expect global economic growth of 3% for 2024.
The fall in inflation since the coronavirus pandemic is generally welcomed, but has not yet reached the target value of 2% in most regions.
Nevertheless, the first central banks are easing their monetary policy framework and providing growth impetus.
Central banks remain data-dependent in their decisions.
Yields on government bonds in the most important markets are moving sideways.
The stock markets in the most important regions are behaving heterogeneously: new highs in the USA, setbacks in Europe. We remain cautiously constructive for the equity markets.
The US dollar has consolidated its gains since the beginning of the year, while the Swiss franc weakened briefly following the SNB's renewed interest rate cut.
The price of gold is currently trading in a range of USD 2,300 to 2,400 per ounce, and we remain positive in our assessment.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are once again dueling for the presidency in the US. The robust US economy is experiencing a slight slowdown. Overall, economic output from industry is weak and is being boosted by the service sector. The BOJ raises key interest rates for the first time in 17 years, but otherwise remains supportive. The SNB lowers its key interest rate and leads the way among the larger central banks. The ECB, BOE and Fed wait with interest rate cuts. Yields on government bonds in the most important regions are consolidating at the upper end of the ranges that have existed since the beginning of the year. The stock markets in the most important regions have largely continued to perform very positively since the start of the year. The US dollar is well supported and the Swiss franc came under pressure following the latest inflation figures and the SNB's interest rate cut. Gold reached new highs and we are maintaining our positioning.

The pleasing growth of the global economy in the third quarter - especially in the USA - will be severely dampened in the fourth quarter, which is usually a seasonally strong quarter. The restrictive monetary policy is having an inhibiting effect.
The outlook for the second half of 2024 is brightening and is experiencing positive momentum, not least thanks to an expected looser monetary policy and "presidential cycle".
Some countries are likely to have already slipped into recession. However, this is mild in most of the countries affected.
The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB)
could open the round of interest rate cuts and cushion a possible downturn.
Yields on government bonds in the most important regions virtually collapsed after the Fed meeting. The announcement of three potential interest rate cuts took many by surprise.
The stock markets responded positively to Fed Chairman Powell's comments and falling interest rates and continued their rally.
Gold consolidates after reaching a new all-time high.

The economy in the USA is still surprisingly robust. The flip side is that inflationary pressures remain elevated. However, there are increasing signs of a slowdown. Loan arrears and bankruptcies are rising.
In the Eurozone there is a marked loss of momentum. The services sector is now also coming under pressure.
Central banks take such developments into account in setting their mone-tary policies. They have stepped back from a commitment to rapid rate rises and have shifted to “fine-tuning”. This might involve modest rate changes and substantial pauses when it comes to changing rates.
Yields on 10-year US government bonds have risen to 4.5%, reaching a 16-year high. Meanwhile, European and Swiss government bond yields have trended sideways.
Equity markets are unsettled and are currently trading around 5% below their highs for the year (depending on the region).
The US dollar is benefit-ing from the rise in US yields and looks set to make further gains. The Swiss franc is trending weaker.
Gold has lately been rather stable despite rising US real interest rates. Oil prices have risen, reaching a high for the year around $95 a barrel.