Are all the departments of all the central banks staffed by Romans?

  Reflections on unemployment, inflation and the FED The US Federal Reserve has achieved its inflation target, current inflation rates are higher than the target inflation and are making up for inflation rates that were too low in the past. We try to show why further expansionary measures are unlikely to have much positive impact on employment, but are only likely to fuel inflation.…


The dilemma of climate change is the prisoner's dilemma

  We show, with the help of an excursion into game theory, why it is so difficult to reach a cooperative solution among all nations regarding “climate change and environmental protection”. We venture a prognosis on whether and how climate change could work.   Climate change imposes significant costs on all of humanity The lion’s share of these costs is not borne by…


Silver - Part 4

Which strategies work in the silver and gold markets?   In the fourth part of the article, we show which strategy achieved a better return than a classic “buy and hold” approach. While the third article dealt with moving-average based strategies, the fourth part examines strategies based on momentum and valuation. It shows that the stationarity of the gold-silver ratio (GSR)…


Silver - Part 3

When should you be invested in silver or gold?   In the 3rd part of this series of articles on silver we try to examine simple investment strategies. It turns out that using the gold-silver ratio (GSR) is not very suitable for applying simple moving-average strategies. Instead of using them for investment decisions, it was better in the past to “simply” buy and hold.  …


Silver - Part 2

A brief history of the gold-silver exchange ratio   In the first part of this blog series, we had seen that silver had various applications in the real economy for centuries due to its unique and special chemical properties (greatest electrical conductivity, high sensitivity to light, inertness, antibacterial effect). In the second part of this article, we will start to look at the role of…


Silver - Part 1

Silver, serving plates, climate change, Joe Biden and the FED   The blog post series Silver would like to take you on an entertaining journey into the world of precious metals and “the little man’s gold”. The first article is the aperitif, the appetiser that should whet your appetite for more. You may learn some interesting facts about silver that you did not know yet.…


Opportunities in the crisis: Should one invest in the COVID-19 losers?

With the development of several vaccines, light is visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Should investors now invest in COVID-19 losers? And if so, what should be considered? We present thoughts on gastronomy, vaccines and the length of time until normal operation can start. Finally, we deal with the characterisation of promising investments.   Particularly negatively affected sectors…


US government debt - Part 3

Investment conclusions – US government debt – Part 3   In the third and final part of this series of articles we want to reflect on possible investment conclusions.   FED will finance increasingly undisguised US government debt What is this analysis good for, what could be the investment relevance? Investors can assume that an increasingly large share of government debt…


US government debt - Part 2

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 2: The government debt Event Horizon Test   In the second part of this series of contributions we develop a simple “sustainability formula” for the national budget. Based on this identity – the formula does not contain any behavioural assumptions and therefore always applies – we check the plausibility of the…


US government debt - Part 1

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 1: What does this have to do with black holes and what are the investment policy consequences?   Unfortunately, there is nothing encouraging to report regarding the development of US government debt. It is at its highest level since 1944. In the first part of this series of articles, we outline the development of US government debt…