The fear is going around

Fear, or at least concern, is sweeping the financial markets. Are the current rising prices having a negative impact on growth? Will interest rates rise and strangle the economic recovery? According to the textbooks of national economics, this would be the logical consequence. If it weren’t for the many pandemic-related special factors. Times are anything but normal at the moment, the…


US economic stimulus programmes and infrastructure

US President Joe Biden, disparagingly called “sleepy” by his blond-haired predecessor, has clearly exceeded expectations in his first 100 days in office. In foreign policy, he has spoken plainly and told the despots in Moscow, Beijing, Istanbul and elsewhere what he thinks of them and what they can expect. In terms of economic and social policy, he has even stepped up a gear –…


Real estate - Pandemic immune

Real estate is pandemic immune. In Switzerland even more so than in the rest of Europe. Corona-related, lasting price distortions or even collapses are hardly noticeable. The Swiss real estate market in particular is proving to be surprisingly resistant: interest rates are still low, space is scarce in the metropolitan areas, demand remains stable, and the economy is expected to grow again this…


Opportunities in the crisis: Should one invest in the COVID-19 losers?

With the development of several vaccines, light is visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Should investors now invest in COVID-19 losers? And if so, what should be considered? We present thoughts on gastronomy, vaccines and the length of time until normal operation can start. Finally, we deal with the characterisation of promising investments.   Particularly negatively affected sectors…


US government debt - Part 2

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 2: The government debt Event Horizon Test   In the second part of this series of contributions we develop a simple “sustainability formula” for the national budget. Based on this identity – the formula does not contain any behavioural assumptions and therefore always applies – we check the plausibility of the…


US government debt - Part 1

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 1: What does this have to do with black holes and what are the investment policy consequences?   Unfortunately, there is nothing encouraging to report regarding the development of US government debt. It is at its highest level since 1944. In the first part of this series of articles, we outline the development of US government debt…


World with COVID-19

The long-term impact of the pandemic on the economy, financial markets and society is difficult to assess. We ask some questions and try to answer them to the best of our knowledge. Along the way, you will learn what the abbreviations SRSSI mean.   Question 1: Will the virus remain a constant companion of mankind? The more decentralized, the more heterogeneous and the more often information…


Corona - do what?

This blog post raises questions about what could be done to minimize the health, economic and emotional damage caused by the COVID-19 virus. You will also learn what pandemics could have to do with space travel and why exploring foreign planets and tracking down “extraterrestrial life” could be so difficult. The analysis should be a controversial basis for discussion.   1. Should…