Are all the departments of all the central banks staffed by Romans?

  Reflections on unemployment, inflation and the FED The US Federal Reserve has achieved its inflation target, current inflation rates are higher than the target inflation and are making up for inflation rates that were too low in the past. We try to show why further expansionary measures are unlikely to have much positive impact on employment, but are only likely to fuel inflation.…


The fear is going around

Fear, or at least concern, is sweeping the financial markets. Are the current rising prices having a negative impact on growth? Will interest rates rise and strangle the economic recovery? According to the textbooks of national economics, this would be the logical consequence. If it weren’t for the many pandemic-related special factors. Times are anything but normal at the moment, the…


US government debt - Part 1

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 1: What does this have to do with black holes and what are the investment policy consequences?   Unfortunately, there is nothing encouraging to report regarding the development of US government debt. It is at its highest level since 1944. In the first part of this series of articles, we outline the development of US government debt…


(Still) No V-shaped recovery in sight

Is the belief of investors that central banks can achieve a robust V-shaped economic recovery with expansive monetary policy only an illusion? What can be learned from trade flows and what does the new inflation target mean?   In the following, we will examine what central banks can achieve with an expansive monetary policy. We take a brief look at the latest report of the World Trade…


Managed Markets

Managed financial markets? The upside-down world in art and financial markets We try to analyse the financial markets against the background of the massive stimuli provided by central banks and the huge government rescue packages. You will also learn what central bank policy might have to do with Pieter Bruegel and Hieronymus Bosch.   Sharp recession is being fought with the most…


Investment parameters in the 2nd quarter 2020

Politics and economy Strict regulations in private and professional life are intended to contain or control the spread of the coronavirus. Aid packages of USD 2 trillion in the USA and EUR 540 billion in Europe are available to minimize the impact on the respective economies. Both are remarkable considering that the US is spending around 10% of GDP and that Europe was previously unable to agree…


Corona - do what?

This blog post raises questions about what could be done to minimize the health, economic and emotional damage caused by the COVID-19 virus. You will also learn what pandemics could have to do with space travel and why exploring foreign planets and tracking down “extraterrestrial life” could be so difficult. The analysis should be a controversial basis for discussion.   1. Should…


Coronavirus as a catalyst for change

The event described by Nassim Taleb as the “Black Swan” has occurred. Since February 24, 2020, the main stock markets have almost lost last year’s profits. The reason for this was and still is the outbreak of the coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2, COVID-19). Although the coronavirus is a low blow, it also provides an opportunity to rethink previous strategies and processes and to act as a…


The Pavlovian Dog Investor

We explain a classical experiment for which the Russian researcher Ivan Petrovich received the Nobel Prize in Physiology / Medicine in 1904. We explain modern central bank experiments for which Stockholm will hopefully not award a Nobel Prize and which actually belong in the realm of financial satire.   The Pavlovian Dog The Russian researcher Ivan Pavlov observed that the owner’s…