Are all the departments of all the central banks staffed by Romans?

  Reflections on unemployment, inflation and the FED The US Federal Reserve has achieved its inflation target, current inflation rates are higher than the target inflation and are making up for inflation rates that were too low in the past. We try to show why further expansionary measures are unlikely to have much positive impact on employment, but are only likely to fuel inflation.…


The fear is going around

Fear, or at least concern, is sweeping the financial markets. Are the current rising prices having a negative impact on growth? Will interest rates rise and strangle the economic recovery? According to the textbooks of national economics, this would be the logical consequence. If it weren’t for the many pandemic-related special factors. Times are anything but normal at the moment, the…


Silver - Part 4

Which strategies work in the silver and gold markets?   In the fourth part of the article, we show which strategy achieved a better return than a classic “buy and hold” approach. While the third article dealt with moving-average based strategies, the fourth part examines strategies based on momentum and valuation. It shows that the stationarity of the gold-silver ratio (GSR)…


Silver - Part 3

When should you be invested in silver or gold?   In the 3rd part of this series of articles on silver we try to examine simple investment strategies. It turns out that using the gold-silver ratio (GSR) is not very suitable for applying simple moving-average strategies. Instead of using them for investment decisions, it was better in the past to “simply” buy and hold.  …


Silver - Part 2

A brief history of the gold-silver exchange ratio   In the first part of this blog series, we had seen that silver had various applications in the real economy for centuries due to its unique and special chemical properties (greatest electrical conductivity, high sensitivity to light, inertness, antibacterial effect). In the second part of this article, we will start to look at the role of…


Silver - Part 1

Silver, serving plates, climate change, Joe Biden and the FED   The blog post series Silver would like to take you on an entertaining journey into the world of precious metals and “the little man’s gold”. The first article is the aperitif, the appetiser that should whet your appetite for more. You may learn some interesting facts about silver that you did not know yet.…


US government debt - Part 3

Investment conclusions – US government debt – Part 3   In the third and final part of this series of articles we want to reflect on possible investment conclusions.   FED will finance increasingly undisguised US government debt What is this analysis good for, what could be the investment relevance? Investors can assume that an increasingly large share of government debt…


US government debt - Part 1

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 1: What does this have to do with black holes and what are the investment policy consequences?   Unfortunately, there is nothing encouraging to report regarding the development of US government debt. It is at its highest level since 1944. In the first part of this series of articles, we outline the development of US government debt…


(Still) No V-shaped recovery in sight

Is the belief of investors that central banks can achieve a robust V-shaped economic recovery with expansive monetary policy only an illusion? What can be learned from trade flows and what does the new inflation target mean?   In the following, we will examine what central banks can achieve with an expansive monetary policy. We take a brief look at the latest report of the World Trade…


Investment parameters in the 2nd quarter 2020

Politics and economy Strict regulations in private and professional life are intended to contain or control the spread of the coronavirus. Aid packages of USD 2 trillion in the USA and EUR 540 billion in Europe are available to minimize the impact on the respective economies. Both are remarkable considering that the US is spending around 10% of GDP and that Europe was previously unable to agree…