Review and outlook 2021

2020 sharpest recession since 1945 In the investment year 2019, the global trade conflicts and the weakening economic growth were clearly in focus. The somewhat more expansive central bank policy, but also the first discussions about fiscal policy measures under the guise of the “Green New Deal” caused the stock markets to rise further at the beginning of this year and in some cases…


The dilemma of health versus economy

The emergency phase of the COVID 19 pandemic is slowly coming to an end. No government was prepared for it, and too many failed in the initial assessment but did what they could afterwards. In the current second phase, however, any mistakes will not be easy to excuse. The authorities must better identify the risk factors and take specific countermeasures. These must be explained to the people at…


Investment parameters in the 2nd quarter 2020

Politics and economy Strict regulations in private and professional life are intended to contain or control the spread of the coronavirus. Aid packages of USD 2 trillion in the USA and EUR 540 billion in Europe are available to minimize the impact on the respective economies. Both are remarkable considering that the US is spending around 10% of GDP and that Europe was previously unable to agree…


Careful share purchase, negligent sale

The old stock market saying “cut your losses and let your profits run” is also understandable to the layman and needs to be proven neither empirically nor theoretically. Nevertheless, stock portfolio managers have difficulties in following this guiding principle and its implementation is inadequate. These conclusions of the book “selling fast and buying slow“, published in…


The game with the fire of debt

Debt is part of the economy, like its counterpart assets and the trade in physical goods. The credit system made a major contribution to the fact that economic development has been consistently positive since industrialisation and society has been able to benefit from it. Whereas the balance of debt/credit had remained more or less in equilibrium until the 20th century, it is now worryingly…