Silver - Part 3

When should you be invested in silver or gold?   In the 3rd part of this series of articles on silver we try to examine simple investment strategies. It turns out that using the gold-silver ratio (GSR) is not very suitable for applying simple moving-average strategies. Instead of using them for investment decisions, it was better in the past to “simply” buy and hold.  …


Real estate - Pandemic immune

Real estate is pandemic immune. In Switzerland even more so than in the rest of Europe. Corona-related, lasting price distortions or even collapses are hardly noticeable. The Swiss real estate market in particular is proving to be surprisingly resistant: interest rates are still low, space is scarce in the metropolitan areas, demand remains stable, and the economy is expected to grow again this…


Silver - Part 2

A brief history of the gold-silver exchange ratio   In the first part of this blog series, we had seen that silver had various applications in the real economy for centuries due to its unique and special chemical properties (greatest electrical conductivity, high sensitivity to light, inertness, antibacterial effect). In the second part of this article, we will start to look at the role of…


Hydrogen - An energy carrier that will not run out

Hydrogen is the energy carrier of the future and is available in almost unlimited quantities. Unfortunately, however, 90% of the hydrogen produced worldwide still comes from fossil fuels, releasing greenhouse gases (CO2). This is not good for the climate. Switzerland, Europe, China and other large industrialised countries, and under President Joe Biden now even the USA again, want to find a…


Silver - Part 1

Silver, serving plates, climate change, Joe Biden and the FED   The blog post series Silver would like to take you on an entertaining journey into the world of precious metals and “the little man’s gold”. The first article is the aperitif, the appetiser that should whet your appetite for more. You may learn some interesting facts about silver that you did not know yet.…


Review and outlook 2021

2020 sharpest recession since 1945 In the investment year 2019, the global trade conflicts and the weakening economic growth were clearly in focus. The somewhat more expansive central bank policy, but also the first discussions about fiscal policy measures under the guise of the “Green New Deal” caused the stock markets to rise further at the beginning of this year and in some cases…


US government debt - Part 3

Investment conclusions – US government debt – Part 3   In the third and final part of this series of articles we want to reflect on possible investment conclusions.   FED will finance increasingly undisguised US government debt What is this analysis good for, what could be the investment relevance? Investors can assume that an increasingly large share of government debt…


US government debt - Part 2

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 2: The government debt Event Horizon Test   In the second part of this series of contributions we develop a simple “sustainability formula” for the national budget. Based on this identity – the formula does not contain any behavioural assumptions and therefore always applies – we check the plausibility of the…


US government debt - Part 1

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 1: What does this have to do with black holes and what are the investment policy consequences?   Unfortunately, there is nothing encouraging to report regarding the development of US government debt. It is at its highest level since 1944. In the first part of this series of articles, we outline the development of US government debt…


(Still) No V-shaped recovery in sight

Is the belief of investors that central banks can achieve a robust V-shaped economic recovery with expansive monetary policy only an illusion? What can be learned from trade flows and what does the new inflation target mean?   In the following, we will examine what central banks can achieve with an expansive monetary policy. We take a brief look at the latest report of the World Trade…