Review and outlook 2021

2020 sharpest recession since 1945 In the investment year 2019, the global trade conflicts and the weakening economic growth were clearly in focus. The somewhat more expansive central bank policy, but also the first discussions about fiscal policy measures under the guise of the “Green New Deal” caused the stock markets to rise further at the beginning of this year and in some cases…


US government debt - Part 3

Investment conclusions – US government debt – Part 3   In the third and final part of this series of articles we want to reflect on possible investment conclusions.   FED will finance increasingly undisguised US government debt What is this analysis good for, what could be the investment relevance? Investors can assume that an increasingly large share of government debt…


US government debt - Part 2

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 2: The government debt Event Horizon Test   In the second part of this series of contributions we develop a simple “sustainability formula” for the national budget. Based on this identity – the formula does not contain any behavioural assumptions and therefore always applies – we check the plausibility of the…


US government debt - Part 1

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 1: What does this have to do with black holes and what are the investment policy consequences?   Unfortunately, there is nothing encouraging to report regarding the development of US government debt. It is at its highest level since 1944. In the first part of this series of articles, we outline the development of US government debt…


(Still) No V-shaped recovery in sight

Is the belief of investors that central banks can achieve a robust V-shaped economic recovery with expansive monetary policy only an illusion? What can be learned from trade flows and what does the new inflation target mean?   In the following, we will examine what central banks can achieve with an expansive monetary policy. We take a brief look at the latest report of the World Trade…


Economic and Real Estate Outlook Switzerland

We provide a brief overview of how Swiss real estate is affected by the Corona crisis. While residential real estate should be less affected, office real estate and shopping centers will come under pressure. Legal uncertainty prevails about owed rents for premises that were not allowed to be used for business purposes due to the lockdown.   Biggest economic slump since 1975 in Switzerland…


COVID 19 pandemic - a challenge at all levels of the company and an opportunity for new ideas

On Wikipedia the coronavirus pandemic is described as an outbreak of the newly emerged respiratory disease COVID-19. This disease first became apparent in December 2019 in the megacity of Wuhan in the Chinese province of Hubei, developed into an epidemic in China in January 2020, and finally spread rapidly to a pandemic worldwide. Due to this novel and very aggressive disease, all people…


Facilitation of customer identification due to Covid-19

The coronavirus still has a firm grip on the world and makes our everyday life considerably more difficult. FINMA takes this situation into account on an ongoing basis and has already issued three supervisory notices in connection with COVID-19, in which it provides for relief for supervised financial institutions. Such facilitation concerns, among other things, the provisions on combating money…


Careful share purchase, negligent sale

The old stock market saying “cut your losses and let your profits run” is also understandable to the layman and needs to be proven neither empirically nor theoretically. Nevertheless, stock portfolio managers have difficulties in following this guiding principle and its implementation is inadequate. These conclusions of the book “selling fast and buying slow“, published in…


The game with the fire of debt

Debt is part of the economy, like its counterpart assets and the trade in physical goods. The credit system made a major contribution to the fact that economic development has been consistently positive since industrialisation and society has been able to benefit from it. Whereas the balance of debt/credit had remained more or less in equilibrium until the 20th century, it is now worryingly…