US government debt – Part 2

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 2: The government debt Event Horizon Test   In the second part of this series of contributions we develop a simple “sustainability formula” for the national budget. Based on this identity – the formula does not contain…


US government debt – Part 1

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 1: What does this have to do with black holes and what are the investment policy consequences?   Unfortunately, there is nothing encouraging to report regarding the development of US government debt. It is at its highest level since…


Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)

Not surprisingly, with rising share prices and a lack of investment alternatives, the temptation for investors to invest the pent-up money on the stock market is increasing. Thus special situation funds of private equity companies have started to provide capital in specific circumstances (e.g.…


(Still) No V-shaped recovery in sight

Is the belief of investors that central banks can achieve a robust V-shaped economic recovery with expansive monetary policy only an illusion? What can be learned from trade flows and what does the new inflation target mean?   In the following, we will examine what central banks can achieve…


Asset Allocation a little different

Black Swans It seems that “black swans” (Nassim Taleb) do appear more frequently than in the past (financial crisis, Corona). Since our time is getting faster and faster, this should not be as surprising as the fact that such events are not supposed to be predictable. Taleb himself has…


World with COVID-19

The long-term impact of the pandemic on the economy, financial markets and society is difficult to assess. We ask some questions and try to answer them to the best of our knowledge. Along the way, you will learn what the abbreviations SRSSI mean.   Question 1: Will the virus remain a constant…