Silver - Part 1

Silver, serving plates, climate change, Joe Biden and the FED   The blog post series Silver would like to take you on an entertaining journey into the world of precious metals and “the little man’s gold”. The first article is the aperitif, the appetiser that should whet your appetite for more. You may learn some interesting facts about silver that you did not know yet.…


Opportunities in the crisis: Should one invest in the COVID-19 losers?

With the development of several vaccines, light is visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Should investors now invest in COVID-19 losers? And if so, what should be considered? We present thoughts on gastronomy, vaccines and the length of time until normal operation can start. Finally, we deal with the characterisation of promising investments.   Particularly negatively affected sectors…


US government debt - Part 3

Investment conclusions – US government debt – Part 3   In the third and final part of this series of articles we want to reflect on possible investment conclusions.   FED will finance increasingly undisguised US government debt What is this analysis good for, what could be the investment relevance? Investors can assume that an increasingly large share of government debt…


US government debt - Part 2

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 2: The government debt Event Horizon Test   In the second part of this series of contributions we develop a simple “sustainability formula” for the national budget. Based on this identity – the formula does not contain any behavioural assumptions and therefore always applies – we check the plausibility of the…


US government debt - Part 1

US government debt rises to historic highs – Part 1: What does this have to do with black holes and what are the investment policy consequences?   Unfortunately, there is nothing encouraging to report regarding the development of US government debt. It is at its highest level since 1944. In the first part of this series of articles, we outline the development of US government debt…


(Still) No V-shaped recovery in sight

Is the belief of investors that central banks can achieve a robust V-shaped economic recovery with expansive monetary policy only an illusion? What can be learned from trade flows and what does the new inflation target mean?   In the following, we will examine what central banks can achieve with an expansive monetary policy. We take a brief look at the latest report of the World Trade…


World with COVID-19

The long-term impact of the pandemic on the economy, financial markets and society is difficult to assess. We ask some questions and try to answer them to the best of our knowledge. Along the way, you will learn what the abbreviations SRSSI mean.   Question 1: Will the virus remain a constant companion of mankind? The more decentralized, the more heterogeneous and the more often information…


Economic and Real Estate Outlook Switzerland

We provide a brief overview of how Swiss real estate is affected by the Corona crisis. While residential real estate should be less affected, office real estate and shopping centers will come under pressure. Legal uncertainty prevails about owed rents for premises that were not allowed to be used for business purposes due to the lockdown.   Biggest economic slump since 1975 in Switzerland…


Managed Markets

Managed financial markets? The upside-down world in art and financial markets We try to analyse the financial markets against the background of the massive stimuli provided by central banks and the huge government rescue packages. You will also learn what central bank policy might have to do with Pieter Bruegel and Hieronymus Bosch.   Sharp recession is being fought with the most…


Corona - do what?

This blog post raises questions about what could be done to minimize the health, economic and emotional damage caused by the COVID-19 virus. You will also learn what pandemics could have to do with space travel and why exploring foreign planets and tracking down “extraterrestrial life” could be so difficult. The analysis should be a controversial basis for discussion.   1. Should…