2nd Update November 2020

Significant progress on the vaccination front increases the chances that the pandemic can be ended in most countries during 2021. However, a short-term relapse into recession in countries in the northern hemisphere is no longer avoidable due to the sharp rise in case numbers. As the beginning of the resumption of "normal operation" of the most damaged industries is becoming apparent, the financial markets can see through the recession hole. Presumably, this is why the wave of insolvencies, e.g. in the tourism sector, has been able to flatten off considerably. A rotation into asset stocks and "pandemic victims" could continue.

Read More

Update November 2020

The odds now favor the Democrats winning the next presidency, Congress is likely to remain substantially in Republican hands. Stock markets celebrated this increasingly likely election result with very strong price gains.

Read More

November 2020

Parts of Europe are already in lockdown as governments fight the second wave of Covid-19. The US lags Europe in terms of the second wave but will probably soon see a sharp rise in infection rates and be forced to implement new restrictions. Thus it is only a matter of time before additional fiscal and monetary stimulus is launched on a worldwide basis. (In the case of the US, probably "soon" after the elections.)

Read More

October 2020

Poll data continue to predict a US election win for the Democrats. But the risk of there being no clear winner is high. A Democrat win should be good for infrastructure-related and climate-neutral businesses.

Read More

September 2020

Thanks to extremely stimulative fiscal and monetary policies economic data are improving and stock markets are booming. Further economic recovery and a continuation of the equity bull market will need further measures of stimulus.

Read More

August 2020

Gold is now slightly overvalued and already discounts further monetary expansion. Indeed, excessive debt and related insol-vency risks mean that a further increase in the money supply is likely. The gold price should continue to rise in the medium- term and gold mining stocks remain attractive.

Read More