Aquila Viewpoints

Marktausblick | 4. Quartal 2026

2. October 2026

Tactical Perspective:

Macro Bonds Equities Other Asset Classes
  • Auftragseingang, Detailhandel, GDPNow und Einkaufsmanagerindizes zeichnen eine robuste Konjunktur in den USA. Die daraus folgende Inflation treibt die Renditen. Kurzfristig überwiegen die positiven Aspekte.
  • In der Eurozone eilt die Stimmung der Realwirtschaft voraus; die deutsche Fiskalpolitik dürfte das Wachstum 2027 gegen 2% heben, deutlich über den Konsens von 1.0% bzw. 1.1%. Die Schweiz wuchs im zweiten Quartal pharmagetrieben kräftig.
  • Fed, EZB und BoJ erhöhten im September um je 25 Basispunkte gegen den kriegsbedingten und energiegetriebenen Inflationsschub, wobei Zinserhöhungen gegen einen Angebotsschock nur bedingt wirken.
  • Die SNB bleibt dank tiefer Inflation bei ihrer Nullzinspolitik.

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