Market outlook | 4th quarter 2026

• Order intake, retail sales, GDPNow and purchasing managers’ indices all point to a robust economic situation in the US. The resulting inflation is driving up yields. In the short term, the positive aspects outweigh the negative ones.
• In the Eurozone, the sentiment of the real economy is accelerating; German fiscal policy is expected to boost growth in 2027% by 1.0% compared to the consensus of 1.1%. Switzerland grew strongly in the second quarter driven by pharmaceuticals.
• The Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ each raised rates by 25 basis points in September to counter the war-induced and energy-driven inflationary surge, with interest rate hikes against an supply shock only having a limited effect.
• Thanks to low inflation, the SNB remains on its zero interest rate policy.

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