In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investment & Wealth Management at Aquila AG, takes stock of the last few months and provides an outlook for the end of the year. The equity markets have been strong in recent quarters, while the bond market has also stabilized. The yellow metal once again played a key role: gold has recorded an impressive gain of over 20% since the beginning of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflation and continued central bank purchases.
Looking ahead to the final weeks of the year, gold remains a key component in portfolios. The gold price could continue to benefit from the uncertainties surrounding the global economy and potential interest rate cuts. In particular, the upcoming US presidential elections and possible new monetary policy measures could lead to increased volatility on the markets. Despite these uncertainties, we are optimistic about the year-end spurt, but are proceeding with caution, as geopolitical risks and economic weaknesses could still challenge the markets.
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Independent asset managers in Switzerland are currently facing a difficult market situation. Many assets are proudly valued after the bull market in the current year, while at the same time the geopolitical fragmentation of the world does not make it easy to make the right investment decisions, as the latest edition of the AVI Index shows.
Independent asset managers in Switzerland are unanimous: local banks are threatened by overregulation, the US economy is overestimated on the stock market, and now is a good time to dry up profits.
In Switzerland, consumption remains the mainstay of the economy, while foreign trade is slowing growth. Inflation is close to zero.
Germany has probably overcome the recession and moderate growth of 1.3-1.4% is expected for the coming years. The EU-US trade agreement further improves the outlook.
In the USA, the figures are contradictory and a shutdown is looming.
The SNB and ECB are keeping their key interest rates unchanged at 0% and 2.0-2.4% respectively. Forecasts point to a slight rise in inflation.
The Fed is continuing its cycle of interest rate cuts due to weaker labor market data and probably also political pressure. Further interest rate cuts are expected.
The mood on the global bond markets is calm and yields are barely moving.
The most important stock markets remain close to their highs as market breadth declines. Individual technology stocks are coming under pressure.
The decline of the US dollar has been interrupted, but further weakness could follow in the medium term.
Gold reflects the loss of confidence in the US dollar.
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