Asset managers see great potential in Swiss blue chips in 2025
Independent asset managers in Switzerland can look back on a surprisingly good year on the stock market. They expect Donald Trump's policies to provide a major boost in 2025. However, they also see attractive investment opportunities in Switzerland - with relatively low risk.
More than two-thirds of independent asset managers in Switzerland expect the current economic situation to have a positive impact on their business. Aquila Asset Manager Index (AVI), which the Swiss Federal Aquila Group every three months in cooperation with finews.ch published.
After some Swiss blue chips bitterly disappointed in 2024, the EAMs surveyed see a lot of catch-up potential in the large-cap stocks next year, namely in the shares of the world's largest food manufacturer Nestlé, which has lost around 30 percent of its value in the past twelve months (cf. graphic below). However, the opportunities in other blue chips also appear to be greater than the risks next year.
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"We prefer selected quality stocks with solid balance sheets, attractive business models and stable dividends. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, we are also focusing on gold, Swiss equities and Switzerland as a booking location," said Raoul SchätzleManaging Partner of Family Partners Switzerland (FPS) in Zurich, opposite finews.ch.
Bleak prospects in Europe
The AVI Index summarizes various forecasts and assessments by independent asset managers in Switzerland. A total of 150 companies took part in the latest survey. The survey also revealed that 84% of the EAMs surveyed expect a strong stock market performance in the USA, which will be significantly better than in Europe.
"In Europe, political stalemates, especially in Germany, are putting the brakes on urgently needed economic stimulus packages and clouding the outlook. Planned US punitive tariffs harbor risks of a trade war with possible negative consequences for global growth," said Christoph SiegerPortfolio Manager at the Zurich-based Aquila AG, opposite finews.ch.
Just no Bitcoin
Overall, the survey participants are convinced that the second term of office of Donald Trump will strengthen the supremacy of the USA on the financial markets. However, 54 percent of the asset managers surveyed are staying away from Bitcoin (cf. graphic below).
Apparently, the risk of a price collapse seems too high for them after the cryptocurrency achieved record prices this year and surpassed the 100,000 dollar mark.
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"While we continue to see technology stocks as significant drivers of returns, careful stock selection is becoming increasingly important. And given the current valuations, targeted profit-taking is a good idea," said Christian Steigleder, also Managing Partner at FPS.
Hopeful Donald Trump
Independent asset managers remain positive about the performance of the Swiss Market Index (SMI) over the next twelve months; 62% (previous quarter: 61%) of those surveyed expect prices to continue to rise.
This is not the case with the S&P 500, where the euphoria triggered by US President Trump is clearly evident: 80 percent of EAMs now expect share prices to rise, compared with just 65 percent in the previous quarter (cf. graphic below).
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In contrast, expectations for Europe are cautious: 42% of survey participants still expect higher prices, compared with 50% three months ago.
In their asset allocation, the independent asset managers are still significantly overweight in equities on average (50.2 percent) and hold a relatively high share of 8.1 percent in alternative investments; gold and precious metals make up 7 percent of the portfolio, while liquidity amounts to 9.7 percent and the share of bonds comes to 25 percent (cf. graphic below).
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Conclusion: For 2025, many independent asset managers are focusing on broad diversification, quality equities with solid growth and investment-grade corporate bonds with short to medium maturities. Continued interest rate cuts should support the positive outlook, as Christoph Sieger from Aquila summarizes.
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Independent asset managers in Switzerland are currently facing a difficult market situation. Many assets are proudly valued after the bull market in the current year, while at the same time the geopolitical fragmentation of the world does not make it easy to make the right investment decisions, as the latest edition of the AVI Index shows.
Independent asset managers in Switzerland are unanimous: local banks are threatened by overregulation, the US economy is overestimated on the stock market, and now is a good time to dry up profits.
In Switzerland, consumption remains the mainstay of the economy, while foreign trade is slowing growth. Inflation is close to zero.
Germany has probably overcome the recession and moderate growth of 1.3-1.4% is expected for the coming years. The EU-US trade agreement further improves the outlook.
In the USA, the figures are contradictory and a shutdown is looming.
The SNB and ECB are keeping their key interest rates unchanged at 0% and 2.0-2.4% respectively. Forecasts point to a slight rise in inflation.
The Fed is continuing its cycle of interest rate cuts due to weaker labor market data and probably also political pressure. Further interest rate cuts are expected.
The mood on the global bond markets is calm and yields are barely moving.
The most important stock markets remain close to their highs as market breadth declines. Individual technology stocks are coming under pressure.
The decline of the US dollar has been interrupted, but further weakness could follow in the medium term.
Gold reflects the loss of confidence in the US dollar.
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